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2024-12-13 02:30:01

Liang Zhonghua of Haitong Securities: The general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 has been determined, and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, said that judging from the statement of the meeting, the general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 is certain. Among them, "supernormal countercyclical adjustment" was put forward for the first time. Liang Zhonghua analyzed that "supernormal adjustment" may be different from QE (quantitative easing) in western countries, but refers to a traditional tool that has grown steadily in the past few years, making a breakthrough on the margin and playing the role of "keeping innovation" and "enriching and perfecting the policy toolbox". Judging from the policies that have been issued since September, this round of steady growth is a steady growth under the framework of "high quality". The high-quality framework will not change, and there will be no strong stimulation of flood irrigation. The meeting proposed to "implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy". Liang Zhonghua believes that next year's finance is expected to make further marginal efforts. It is expected that deficit ratio may improve. At present, 3.5%-4.0% is more likely, and the scale of special bonds may be marginally increased. Special government bonds supporting "duality" and "two innovations" will continue to be issued or increased. In addition, the debt-melting policy launched in November will also be the financial focus next year, and it is expected that special government bonds may be issued to supplement bank capital. In addition, the gradual interest rate cut will continue next year, and the structural monetary policy will continue to exert its strength. The meeting stressed that "it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all directions." In this regard, Liang Zhonghua believes that compared with Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's statement of "expanding domestic demand with the focus on boosting consumption" in July, this meeting pays more attention to expanding domestic demand, and its support is expected to be further increased in the future. Since the beginning of this year, with the extra-long special national debt funds in place, the consumption of consumer goods trade-in policy has gradually emerged. There is still room for further efforts to expand domestic demand policies such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones next year. Liang Zhonghua also mentioned that this meeting clearly put forward "stabilizing the property market and stock market", which shows that the policy pays high attention to the property market and stock market. As an important signal to pay attention to the economy and expectations, the policies of the property market and stock market are also positive.Xiaomi Auto Elite Driving Activity started. According to Xiaomi News, Xiaomi Auto Elite Driving Activity is now open for registration, and the registration fee is 9999 yuan. Participants will receive a 9999 yuan deposit gift certificate for Xiaomi SU7 Ultra, enjoy a professional track and drift experience, and get a professional certificate after the event.By 11:21, 100 stocks in the two cities had daily limit.


Lebanese media said that Israeli tanks were moving about 20 kilometers away from Damascus. According to the early morning news of Lebanon's "Square" TV station on the 10th local time, Israeli troops had crossed the Syrian-Israeli military buffer zone, entered the rural province of Damascus, Syria, and occupied several towns in the province near the Lebanese border. Israeli tanks are heading for Qatana, about 20 kilometers from Damascus. (CCTV News)Philippine imports increased by 11.2% year-on-year in October, while exports decreased by 5.5% year-on-year.Shibor reported 1.4700% overnight, down 4.6 basis points; In 7 days, shibor reported 1.7840%, up 4.8 basis points; In three months, shibor reported 1.7480%, down 0.5 basis point.


Low-priced stocks continued to be active in Shanzi Hi-Tech for 7 days and 6 boards. Low-priced stocks continued to be active in Shanzi Hi-Tech for 7 days and 6 boards. Huayuan Real Estate, Smith Barney and wenfeng shares had daily limit, while yongtai energy, Rong Sheng Development and Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. followed up.Shenghong cooperated with many partners to build the first off-grid electric vehicle charging station in South Africa. Recently, Shenghong shares joined hands with MagicPower Shanghai Maizike Technology Co., Ltd., Zero Carbon Charge and Greencore Energy Solutions to jointly launch the first off-grid electric vehicle charging station in South Africa. The charging station is equipped with a 480kW split machine, including a host and three charging terminals, with a total of six charging guns, four of which are liquid-cooled and users can enjoy a cruising range of 400 kilometers only by charging for 10 minutes.In November, China's dollar-denominated exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 3.9%.

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